Price analysis 4/15: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, SOL, ADA, LUNA, AVAX, DOGE, DOT
Bitcoin and altcoins continue to face selling at higher levels, indicating that the bears are not willing to let go of their advantage.
Bitcoin (BTC) remains closely correlated with the S&P 500 but the institutional investors do not seem to be waiting for a turnaround in the United States’ equities market or decoupling to happen before buying more Bitcoin.
Notably, 30,000 Bitcoin moved out of Coinbase Pro in a single day, suggesting strong institutional demand.
MicroStrategy, the publicly listed company, which is the largest single-wallet holder of Bitcoin, does not seem to be content with its stash of 129,219 Bitcoin. In a letter to shareholders, the firm’s CEO Michael Saylor said that the company aims to “vigorously pursue” and “increase awareness” about its Bitcoin strategy.
Another entity that has been at the forefront of Bitcoin purchases in the past few days has been the Luna Foundation Guard (LFG), a nonprofit organization attached to Terra, which owns 42,530 Bitcoin. LFG was recently gifted $820 million worth of LUNA tokens by Terraform Labs, which some believe may be used to buy more Bitcoin.
Do the huge BTC outflows from a pro-trader crypto exchange suggest that a bottom may be close by? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin’s recovery fizzled out at $41,561 on April 13, indicating that higher levels continue to trigger selling. The buyers are currently attempting to defend the psychological level at $40,000.
The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($42,419) is sloping down and the relative strength index (RSI) is in the negative territory, indicating that the path of least resistance is to the downside.
If the price plummets below $39,200, the selling could intensify and the BTC/USDT pair could drop to the support line of the ascending channel. The bulls are likely to defend this level aggressively.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns up and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest accumulation at lower levels. The bulls will then attempt to push the pair to $45,400.
Ether (ETH) has been sandwiched between the 20-day EMA ($3,144) and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($2,975) for the past three days. This suggests that bulls are defending the 50-day SMA while bears are selling on rallies to the 20-day EMA.
If the price breaks and sustains below $2,950, the selling could accelerate and the ETH/USDT pair could drop to $2,817. This level might act as a support but if it cracks, the next stop could be the uptrend line.
Conversely, if the price rebounds off the current level and rises above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rally to the overhead zone between the 200-day SMA ($3,491) and $3,600. This is an important zone to watch out for because a break and close above it could signal the start of a new up-move.
BNB broke above the 20-day EMA ($420) on April 13 but the bulls could not build upon this advantage. The bears pulled the price back below the 20-day EMA on April 14 but a minor positive is that the bulls have not given up much ground.
The flattish 20-day EMA and the RSI near the midpoint indicate a possible range-bound action in the near term. If the price rises above $427, the bulls will try to push the BNB/USDT pair to the 200-day SMA ($420) where the bears are expected to mount strong resistance.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the current level, the bears will try to sink the pair below $391. If they succeed, the decline could extend to the strong support at $350. The buyers are likely to defend this level with vigor.
Ripple’s (XRP) rebound picked up momentum and reached the 50-day SMA ($0.78) on April 15. If the price sustains above the 50-day SMA, the next stop could be the strong resistance at $0.91.
The 20-day EMA ($0.77) is flattening out and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating range-bound action in the near term. The XRP/USDT pair could remain stuck between $0.69 and $0.91 for the next few days.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 50-day SMA, it will suggest that bears are selling on rallies. The pair could then drop to the critical level at $0.69. A break and close below this support could pull the pair down to $0.62.
Solana (SOL) has been stuck between the 20-day EMA ($108) and the 50-day SMA ($100) for the past three days but this tight-range trading is unlikely to continue for long.
If bears sink and sustain the price below the 50-day SMA, the selling could pick up momentum. The SOL/USDT pair could then decline to $86. The downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the negative zone indicate advantage to sellers.
On the other hand, if the price rebounds off the 50-day SMA, the bulls will try to push the pair above the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, it will suggest that the correction may be over. The pair has a chance to then rise to $122 and later attempt a rally to the 200-day SMA ($148).
Cardano (ADA) has been trading inside a tight range between $0.91 and $1 for the past three days. This suggests uncertainty about the next directional move.
The downsloping 20-day EMA ($1) and the RSI in the negative territory indicate that bears are in command. If the tight range resolves to the downside, the ADA/USDT pair could extend its decline to $0.86 and later to the critical support at $0.74.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns up from the current level and breaks above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rise to $1.10. A break and close above this minor resistance could open the doors for a possible retest of $1.26. The buyers will have to overcome this barrier to signal a potential change in trend.
Terra’s LUNA token turned down from $90 and broke below the support at $80 on April 14, indicating that bears are selling on every minor rally. The bears will now try to pull the price down to $75.
The 20-day EMA ($94) and the 50-day SMA ($93) are about to complete a bearish crossover and the RSI is in the negative territory, indicating that bears have the upper hand. A break and close below $75 could sink the LUNA/USDT pair to the 200-day SMA ($66). The bulls are expected to defend this level with all their might.
Alternatively, if the price turns up from the current level and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bears may be losing their grip. The pair could then attempt to rise above the psychological level at $100.
Related: Cardano price risks 30% drop in Q2 despite a ‘major’ hard fork ahead
Avalanche’s (AVAX) bounce off the uptrend line could not rise above the moving averages, indicating that the bears are active at higher levels. The price is currently stuck between the moving averages and the uptrend line.
This tight-range trading is unlikely to continue for long. The downsloping 20-day EMA ($83) and the RSI below 40 suggest that the bears have a slight edge. If the price turns down and breaks below the uptrend line, the selling could pick up momentum. The AVAX/USDT pair could then drop to the next support at $65.
On the contrary, if the price bounces off the uptrend line with strength, the buyers will try to push the pair above the moving averages. If they succeed, the pair could rise to $90 and later to $93.
After two failed attempts to close above the 20-day EMA ($0.14) on April 12 and 13, the bulls managed to conquer the level on April 14. The buyers will now try to push Dogecoin (DOGE) to $0.16 and then to the 200-day SMA ($0.18).
The bears are likely to defend the 200-day SMA. If the price turns down from this resistance, it will suggest that the DOGE/USDT pair could remain stuck between the 50-day SMA ($0.13) and the 200-day SMA for a few days. The flat 20-day EMA and the RSI just above the midpoint also suggest a consolidation in the near term.
This view will be invalidated in the short term if the price turns down from the current level or the overhead resistance and plummets below the 50-day SMA. That could pull the pair down to $0.12.
The recovery attempt in Polkadot (DOT) lacks strength, indicating that demand dries up at higher levels. This increases the likelihood of the continuation of the correction.
The downsloping 20-day EMA ($19) and the RSI in the negative zone indicate that bears have the upper hand. If the price turns down from the current level and breaks below $17, the decline could extend to $16. This level is likely to attract strong buying.
If the price rebounds off $16, the buyers will make another attempt to clear the overhead resistance at $19. If they succeed, it will suggest that the correction may be over. The DOT/USDT pair may then consolidate between $23 and $16 for some time.
Alternatively, if the price breaks below $16, the next stop should be the critical support at $14.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
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